In a study conducted at Columbia University and published in Nature, it was determined that the number of armed conflicts double during El Nino years. The research looked at armed conflicts between 1950 and 2004 in the tropical parts of South America, Africa, Asia-Pacific region, and included parts of Australia. The data showed that fully 1/5 of them could be linked to the 4 to 7 year El Nino climate cycles.
What I find so interesting about the study is that even though a correlation was established, the authors could only speculate as to the underlying factors that might actually trigger the violence. They suggest that the armed conflicts are a result of the heat that causes failed harvests, and the subsequent loss of food and income.
They also speculate that additional results of the erratic weather, are an increase in the number of hurricanes, an increase in the area and durations of droughts, and the increase in disease.
They also speculate that additional results of the erratic weather, are an increase in the number of hurricanes, an increase in the area and durations of droughts, and the increase in disease.
Interestingly enough, the study also determined that the levels of poverty, democracy and population did not alter the strength of the climate-conflict link at all. This allows us to eliminate the possibility that the revolutions in North Africa and the Middle East are democratically driven. In fact, it would suggest that harvest failure, a lack of food and the inability to purchase food just might be the absolute bottom line in most violent uprisings.
It has long been my belief that armed conflicts, revolution, and civil disturbance are directly related to hunger and not politics. It was pointed out that the great Egyptian civilization fell during a drought, and that Russia and France fell as a result of wide spread hunger and starvation. Currently we are watching as Tunisia, modern Egypt, Libya, Syria, and many other current, localized revolts are occurring due in large part to the populations’ high unemployment rates and their inability to feed themselves.
As studies go, this is significant because it partially puts to rest the political propaganda that flourishes around uprisings. It is hunger that drives revolution, not some sudden craving for democratic or socialist ideals. Sadly, we can expect to see much, much more of it in days to come - and you can include the United States in this phenomenon as well. Between the massive areas of droughts that have spread across the Sun Belt, with 25% of the population reliant on food stamps, and the reduction in food production, the stage is already set.
All that is left to do is take baby steps to try to avert disaster. Install water-harvesting systems, plant backyard gardens and conserve, conserve, conserve. We can rise above this if we plan, enjoin our strengths, and do not live as if we are alone in this.
Think about it.
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